Villarreal are unsurprisingly good

Marcelino has signed a bunch of players and Villarreal sit fourth in the table after four games. Can they stay there?

In the most unsuprising of news to start the season, Villarreal have been the surprise package.

How much of a ‘surprise package’ can you be when everyone thinks you’ve signed well and could reach the top four this season. If anything, Villarreal can only really disappoint given the expectations we are putting on them. That hasn’t happened so far. After four games, they have eight points and are tied for second place with Real Madrid and Atlético Madrid.

Villarreal have gone all in on their squad overhaul this year. Always a selling club, they pushed their efforts into overdrive this summer. They sold Alexander Sørloth, Filip Jørgensen, Ben Brereton Díaz, Jorge Cuenca and a few more players for €74.5 million. They let some older players walk in order to make room in the squad and within the wage budget for new players.

With the money accumulated from those sales, they brought in Luiz Júnior, Diego Conde, Logan Costa, Willy Kambwala, Sergi Cardona, Juan Bernet, Papa Gueye, Ayoze Pérez, Nicolas Pépé and Thierno Barry. That’s two goalkeepers, a pair of centre-back and left-backs, a defensive midfielder and three attackers if you’re keeping count.

10 players in total, almost a brand new team. Marcelino has been forced to dip into that pool of new talent given they had four games from the 19th of August until the 31st - just 13 days. So far, we haven’t seen anything revolutionary from Marcelino. It’s been 4-4-2 all the way with some minor tweaks depending on the personnel on the field and the opposition.

They are currently fifth for expected goals (5.7) and fifth-last for expected goals against (5.9) and are almost breaking even in xG difference (-0.1). Last season, they were third-last for xGA with some of the worst team defending on display all year. Marcelino has improved that somewhat but this season in order to achieve the promised land of fourth place or anywhere close to it, they’ll have to strike the perfect balance between defense and attack.

They look like a team with a purpose now, a clarity of style that wasn’t always there over the last couple of years since Unai Emery left.

Santi Delivers

One of the standout performers for Villarreal, and LaLiga in general, so far this season has been Santi Comesaña. Kiko Femenia, Sergi Cardona and Comesaña have been the most used outfield players during the first four games of the league for Marcelino. Comesaña’s versatility is vital to Marcelino’s 4-4-2 and it will be used to its full extent this season. He’s the epitome of the balance between defense and attack that Villarreal are looking for.

He often sits alongside Parejo as the engine in midfield. He becomes one of the primary orchestrators of play when Parejo doesn’t play and depending on the game state, he can push out to the left to add defensive solifity when Villarreal are protecting a lead. He can also play as the number 10 like we saw against Valencia with his assist for Ayoze Pérez while Alex Baena enjoyed a much-deserved rest.

Marcelino added an extra wrinkle against Valencia, who play a formidabble mid-block 4-4-2, and had Santi higher up the field in Baena’s absence. Gueye and Parejo played as the central pair and while Villarreal did look flat, the blitz of games this early in the season might have taken its toll.

Baena Ready For A Breakout

Álex Baena is still only 23 but this is his third season as a Villarreal player in LaLiga after coming back from a loan spell at Girona where he played 38 times in the Segunda division. He has played 35 and 34 games respectively in the last two seasons and while he has often been mentioned as a candidate for a major breakout, he is yet to go supernova. His 14 assists last season got lost in the noise of a very messy season where Villarreal went through three managers before finally landing on Marcelino, who looks like he is settling in for the long haul.

They are stable again and the 4-4-2 Marcelino plays with might be the platform for Baena to make a name for himself outside of LaLiga.

We sent this tweet out after the game against Celta Vigo and Baena didn’t play in Villarreal’s fourth game so his 11 chances created remains the same. He has created 4.25 chances per 90, which is second among players behind only Chidera Ejuke (minimum 180 minutes). He has 0.49 expected assists per 90, which leads the league - second on the list is another La Pausa favourite, Óscar Mingueza (0.48).

The main creative responsibility of this team rests on Baena’s shoulders. Comesaña can be creative and Yeremy Pino is back after recovering from an ACL tear last season. But neither of these players’ essence involves finding that final pass. Baena was born for this role. He plays on the left of a midfield but with the license to drift inside to the half-space where both he and Danjuma had built up a very solid partnership before Danjuma left late on in the transfer window. Here’s a look at the average positions (up until the first substitution) in one of the wildest games of football we have seen in Spain for some time.

Many of the roles within Marcelino’s system are very well defined. Baena’s remit is a little more flexible. They signed Sergi Cardona, and then Juan Bernat, to provide width on that side when Baena drifts inside. The right-back position is slightly more defensive with Yeremy Pino out wide and so no need for a maurading full-back. Baena’s more free role means he is able to pick the ball up where he can do maximum damage.

Doubts Over Defense

Villarreal have refreshed their defense with youth having seen Alberto Moreno and Aissa Mandi leave on free transfers while 24-year-old Jorge Cuenca was sold to Fulham. They landed Willy Kambwala (20) and Logan Costa (23) from Manchester United and Toulouse respectively and both have been eased into action. Neither look ready to be relied upon immediately but they didn’t look out of their depth either.

At some point, Villarreal will have to transition away from Raul Albiol but both he and Eric Bailly have played the most minutes among all the options Marcelino now has at his disposal at centre-back.

In four games, Bailly and Albiol have started two. Logan Costa and Albiol started against Valencia with Bailly and Kambwala starting the Sevilla game. It’s only four games so far but this rotation will be interesting to watch develop as the season progresses.

In an ideal Costa and Kambwala usurp Bailly and Albiol but we might be a while away from that just yet.

The Rest Of The New Signings

Just a few words on the rest of Villarreal’s new signings.

Ayoze Pérez: it looked like Arnaut Danjuma was set to stay and play an important role this season but he left for Girona at the end of the transfer market. Pérez, a less dynamic player than the Dutch striker will be thrust into a starting role more frequently as a result.

Diego Conde: Villarreal have signed two keepers and are giving Conde plenty of chances before we presumably see Luiz Júnior take over the starting job.

Nicolas Pépé: we have only seen the former Arsenal man for 181 minutes this season with one start against Sevilla. He looks like he could be particularly decisive if he can earn enough minutes. With Danjuma gone now, there will likely be more opportunities as one of the two strikers.

Pape Gueye: he brings a defensive element to central midfield that is lacking when Dani Parejo and Santi Comesaña play there. He might never become a starter but when Marcelino wants to pack the middle with bodies to see out a lead, for example, he can shift Comesaña to the left and put Gueye into the middle, or play Gueye with Comesaña orchestrating play when Parejo needs a break.

Thierno Barry: one of the main reasons Villarreal were willing to part with Danjuma was the emergence of Thierno Barry as not only an option but as a potential focal point. He’s just 21 and arrived from the Swiss Super League so will take time to adapt and adjust to the level of Spain’s top flight. But he is physically imposing, has better technique than his frame might suggest and looks like he could be a brilliant but unorthodox striker for Villarreal.

So, can Villarreal stay in the top four? In theory, they can. They have a squad with good depth at most positions and some truly difference-making players in key positions. They will need over-performances from a couple of their new signings and at least one of their centre-backs will have to hit the ground running despite being young. The good news is that Marcelino has options now and while his version of the 4-4-2 probably has its limitations, it guarantees a certain floor in terms of performance provided all the players remain bought in.