Destinies collide in Las Palmas

Saturday night's meeting in Gran Canaria brings together two of Segunda's 2022-23 heavyweights, but only one will cross the bridge to Primera.

And so it all comes down to this. 41 games later, after duking it out all season long in one of Europe’s most disputed competitions, Las Palmas and Alavés will face each other with their season objectives distilled into 90-and-a-bit minutes in Gran Canaria.

A win for Las Palmas on Saturday night will see them promoted automatically; a draw would likely be enough, as long as Levante don’t win by at least six goals against Oviedo. For Alavés, they must win to clinch promotion and condemn their opponents to the play-offs.

“We’re going to be one of the three teams that go up,” was the declaration that Alavés coach Luis García Plaza made in March. Well, here’s the opportunity. He and his team now have the ultimate chance to walk the walk, and to make good on that conviction.

The marathon ends here; only a win will do.

Previous line-ups:

Will either side stray from their habitual idea?

Las Palmas and Alavés are separated by just a point after 41 games, but they’ve reached practically the same stage by doing very different things.

The home side, led by ex-Barcelona coach García Pimienta, achieve pretty much everything with the ball. The style of play that reigns in Las Palmas — not just now, but historically — is one of association and expression, the type which is born from the streets. And here in the present, the profile of their squad necessitates that they are the owners of the ball too.

Their 33-year-old captain Jonathan Viera is symbolic of that. Widely considered to be one of the club’s greatest players, he is beyond his physical prime these days but as sharp as ever in his mind — a talent worthy of a higher division, but who plays in service of his hometown club. In a team who dominate possession most weeks, he’s the connector of the team and the source of practically everything that morphs from considered possession into final third threat.

Las Palmas want this scenario, but they need it too. A game of transitions and trading initiative is one they’re not built for, and much less their captain.

To sum up the difference between the two teams, Las Palmas rank second in the league for 10+ pass sequences (689 in open play), while Alavés rank dead last (117). García Pimienta’s side want the ball in order to maintain a secure game, where they can create chances but defend through ball retention and be well positioned after turnovers. Alavés want the ball so they can score; to finalise attacks instead of elaborating them.

When these teams met back in September, they neutralised each other from within their own approaches. Las Palmas had 77% possession at Mendizorroza — the product of Alavés waiting for them in a mid-block and the visitors playing as patiently as possible to try and provoke some haste from their opposition.

Alavés scored first in transition through winger Abde Rebbach, but then handed initative over entirely. Las Palmas started slow and suffered against an Alavés team built to hit hard in transition, but eventually their control of the game generated the opening to equalise. It was a game in which both sides suffered the pros and cons of their respective visions.

The problem this time — if you can call it that — is Alavés absolutely have to win. In the first 20 minutes of the reverse fixture, they had just 19% possession and didn’t register a touch in Las Palmas’ penalty area. They closed the space behind the ball, rather than committing numbers to win it. Their approach to the game was deferential, even on home soil at Mendizorroza.

“If we go out at break-neck speed in their stadium, Las Palmas can destroy you. I’ve seen it and that’s how it is. If we go out really open, I’m sure they’re going to kill us. We have to be compact.”

Indeed, the message from Luis García Plaza heading into this game isn’t an entirely defiant one. The Alavés coach, unless he’s lining up a huge bluff, looks to be planning for a patient match and to be in the game in the second half at all costs, rather than use their fresh legs to apply high pressure and break the home side’s rhythm from the off.

Can Alavés afford to wait this time?

At an expectant Estadio Gran Canaria, filled to the brim in yellow, Las Palmas would surely prefer a cautious entry from their opponents. In their last home game, a 1-1 draw against Villarreal B, the highs and lows of their performance correlated almost exactly with how much of the ball Las Palmas had.

After a first half in which they had looked fluid, connected and kept Villarreal at arm’s length through midfield control, they lost their way in the second half when the opposition engaged them higher up and disrupted Las Palmas’ possession more frequently. When defensive substitutes were made, with an eye on the fitness of Jonathan Viera and Sandro, García Pimienta’s side further lost their capacity to retain the ball and would ultimately suffer the consequences, conceding to a late header from defender Mamadou Fall.

The objective for Las Palmas is to not lose, and the how has to revolve around not renouncing their play in pursuit of the final whistle. The moments to suffer will come at some point, but they shouldn’t be invited.

Kirian Rodríguez’s return isn’t merely symbolic

Kirian’s return — whenever it came — was always going to provide something of an emotional lift for Las Palmas. Diagnosed with Hodgkin's lymphoma last summer, the disease not only struck down a player in the prime of his career, finally showing his innate talent at the professional level, but a significant piece of a Las Palmas team that flew close to promotion last season.

When the news about Kirian first arrived, his message had been a rebellious one. He was in good hands, he didn’t want sympathy or to be inundated with messages of fuerza — his only concern was to get back on the pitch as quickly as possible. In an interview with Marca last October, his response to the question of what motivates him to get up every day was instructive of both his attitude and the type of footballer Las Palmas were missing: “to be back on the pitch touching the ball — and to nutmeg someone.”

Since returning to action at the end of April, the 27-year-old’s presence in midfield has been transformative for a team that were suffering towards promotion, rather than surging. In a season that had started to feel 10 games too long for Las Palmas, and as if the inspiration behind a pass-heavy team was fading rapidly, Kirian’s emergence has sparked Las Palmas’ association play at the point when they needed it most.

In their 4-1 win at Cartagena last time out — a game between two sides wanting the ball and hunting to recover it after losses — Kirian completed 96% of his passes, misplacing just three, and notching an assist in the process. In a must win moment, there was nobody playing more at ease.

García Pimienta has leaned on Kirian to prop up the pivote role — one which isn’t normally his ideal position, but had been enforced by Las Palmas’ need to recoup their fluidity of play in midfield. And from the moment he returned last April, there has been an apparent shift in their dynamic in possession. It’s sharper, more Canarian, and typified by Kirian’s bravery to take the ball in the most difficult moments. Not only has he been economical, his presence has given Jonathan Viera a key ally in the pursuit of associative play.

With what’s at stake on Saturday night, Las Palmas need cool heads and sharp feet in their midfield. They don’t necessarily need to win — a draw very well may suffice — but they do need to preserve their way of playing to arrive at a safe result.

As García Pimienta has no doubt been reinforcing all week, now isn’t the time for Las Palmas to retreat into a shell, anxious at playing the result before the game. And Kirian will be pivotal to combat any indications of it.

Luis Rioja must lead the way for Alavés

Alavés have the second-highest direct speed (1.89) in Segunda this season, an Opta metric which measures how quickly a team moves up the pitch (metres per second) when in possession. They are a team who lean heavily on attacking in transition and drive them at speed through their wide players.

The one constant within that structure this season has been their left winger, Luis Rioja. He has played more minutes than any other outfield player for them this term (3,053), off-setting a right side in which they have rotated between Jason, Xeber Alkain and Rober throughout the season without ever really finding the same continuity. That contrast, it should be said, speaks more to Rioja’s quality than any overwhelming issues on the right side.

The 29-year-old has been one of the most productive players in Segunda this term, with his 14 combined goals and assists almost double that of any Alavés teammate (Miguel de la Fuente, 8). The 46 chances he has generated following a carry — his speciality as a fleet-footed winger — is the third-most of any player in Segunda this term.

If this game is to follow Alavés’ traditional script — wait, pounce, attack — then Rioja is the player Las Palmas must be vigilant of.

For most of the season, Las Palmas opted to use a natural centre back in Álex Suárez at right back — in possession, they moved into a back three and pushed Sergi Cardona (LB) high, while keeping Suárez as defensive cover. One of the tweaks that they made in the defining weeks of the season, however, was to move to a more orthodox back four and bring in Álvaro Lemos from the cold at right back.

Lemos has only played 1,088 minutes this season, and up until the end of April was heading for a rather incognito campaign. Now thrust back into the picture all of a sudden, the 30-year-old figures as one of the key points in this last, defining game — perhaps the player that Las Palmas most need to hold up just once more. Against an opponent who prioritise the wings, and with their best player in Rioja up against him, Alavés will surely look to stress that side of the pitch as much as possible.

Will García Plaza choose an attacking full back to pair with Rioja? That decision will affect the cat-and-mouse approach on that side, in terms of how much Pejiño (RW) will have to track back and provide cover ahead of Lemos. Perhaps even — in line with protecting themselves against defeat — Las Palmas will draft in Álvaro Jiménez to shore up that level of cover.

The line-up decisions, as ever, will be instructive of who’s playing for what.

Saúl Coco’s corrective ability

The breakout star of Las Palmas’ season, Saúl Coco has been the most-used outfield player for the Amarillos in the second half of the campaign. Amid system changes, rotation and key selection decisions on this side of the World Cup, the 24-year-old has been the constant presence in Las Palmas’ back line through the good and bad.

Coco’s performances have been consistent, but what sets him apart from the other centre back options is his comfortability in the high line that Las Palmas’ football necessitates. Particularly when playing at Estadio Gran Canaria, where they naturally have more of the ball and more initiative to advance the game, Coco is essential against the threat of opposition counters.

Against Alavés, his remit is likely to be much more of the same. If Luis García Plaza’s pre-match sentiment is to be believed, the visitors will stick by their transitional approach and target the space that an encroaching Las Palmas leave behind their defensive line. It remains to be seen who they’ll select to play at centre forward, but whether it’s Asier Villalibre, Miguel de la Fuente or Mamadou Sylla, all three are hard-running options that’ll be tasked with penetrating the last line.

García Plaza also has a decision to make on the right wing. If he opts to give continuity to Rober, a player who is more tended to come inside and associate, then the counter-attacking threat is tilted more towards Alavés’ left side where Rioja will be, in support of their front man.

Coco’s positioning on the right side of Las Palmas’ centre back pair could be crucial in this sense. If his presence alone isn’t enough to ward off balls played over the top of Lemos, given his proximity to be able to get across and recover any that aren’t pinpoint, the Guinea international has made a habit this season of important last-ditch interventions. Even when Las Palmas’ back line has been breached entirely — be it a poorly executed offside trap or a disconnect across the line — Coco’s speed of recovery is a corrective element that can save the day for his side.

For a player who has caught the attention of LaLiga clubs with his displays this season, one last task stands between Coco and the top level, as well as Las Palmas’ likelihood of retaining one of the best young defenders to emerge from the Canary Islands in recent memory.