10 stat-based predictions for the 2025-26 LaLiga season
Ahead of the new campaign, Robbie and Jamie make some number-based calls on what we're thinking across the league.
As our readers will know, we like to make use of numbers and data here at La Pausa. And so with our usual prediction ideas swirling ahead of the season, we thought we’d put some together with specific stats in mind and frame our predictions and feelings that way (instead of just general musings).
10 stats, five selections each… we’ll kick off with Jamie.
1. Pedri becomes the first Barça midfielder to make 10+ assists in a LaLiga season since Cesc Fàbregas in 2013-14
It’s somewhat of a running joke in Barcelona circles that Pedri is being sold short on his assist tally. Teammates whiffing shots, not taking shots when they should… you know how it works. And the thing is, the data fully backs it up.
By the measure of expected assists, Pedri was officially the third-best creator from open play in LaLiga last season (8.2). However, the Canarian was a matter of decimals behind Álex Baena (8.8), meaning Lamine Yamal (11.4) was the only player with any real daylight ahead of him on that one.
Our eyes and the numbers both confirm Pedri was one of top creative players last term (while doing a whole load of other great stuff).
His total of five assists wouldn’t tell you that quite as much. As per Opta’s numbers, and including set pieces, Pedri left a grand total of four assists on the table when considering the quality of chances he created (9 xA). That was the biggest ‘sold short’ case of any player from Spain’s big three sides.
Eventually, Pedri will get his rewards on the assists board. Barcelona dominate territory, create an overwhelming amount of chances, and the midfielder is an essential cog in that machine. The production from the 22-year-old really is all there – he just needs a little more luck and help from his teammates to earn him a more material recognition as the creative genius he is.
2. Jon Martín to win the most aerial duels of any defender
This is, admittedly, a little speculative for a player born in 2006 with six LaLiga starts to his name. Before he even contests a header, it fundamentally relies on him being a fixture in their starting XI this season; something we can’t be absolutely sure of just yet.
With that said, we do like his chances. And if that’s the case, Jon Martín’s early showings at senior level have given us a pretty good indicator that he’s an aerial phenomenon.
Combining the data from LaLiga and the U19 EUROs last term, Martín won 80% of his aerial duels on almost 100 contested (78/97). That’s not a case of him pumping up his numbers against fellow teenagers, either. In LaLiga alone, he won 53 of 64 that he contested, leaving a similarly dominant 83% success rate – albeit on a smaller sample size.
If Sergio Francisco does elect him to partner Igor Zubeldia throughout the season, Real Sociedad will surely be thinking about his threat from set pieces, too. This being a team desperately looking for more attacking resources after a dismal season in front of goal last time out.
Martín has, quite remarkably, won all eight aerial duels he’s contested in the opposition’s penalty area in LaLiga, and 12/14 overall considering his own penalty area.
Set piece coaches, beware.
3. Newly-promoted Levante to rank in the top 10 for clean sheets
A new face on LaLiga’s managerial scene, followers of the league will pretty quickly be able to figure out what Julián Calero is all about. He is an obsessive for equilibrio, being competitive, and above all, being hard to beat.
Now in the top tier and facing the prospect of a big talent deficit between his side and the rest, we can only expect him to double down on all of that. Any and all success that Levante have this season will thus, inevitably, be built on their defensive performance.
That talent deficit might ultimately be too big for any coaching performance to overcome, but Calero certainly knows how to build a strong defensive unit. He will give them every chance to be hard to beat. This is, after all, the guy who led a Burgos team to 12 consecutive clean sheets in Segunda – one of Europe’s most unpredictable leagues – between May and October 2022.
Despite using a four in every game of their promotion campaign last term, we expect Levante to come out with a back five system this term. With that we know what their priority will be, given that they’re not a possession-focused team and will likely be pushed back by higher class opposition most weeks. They’ll spend a lot of time in a deeper block, compressing space over actively seeking to squeeze up and get away from their own goal.
When go-time comes, Calero will have his team prepared to suffer as a collective and put a premium on defending their box well. And although they will inevitably give up lots of shots, they’ll live with that as long as they can limit big chances.
I, for one, believe in Calero’s capacity to achieve that and make Levante a tougher nut to crack than the quality of their squad suggests.
4. Álex Baena breaks Atletico Madrid’s single-season record for chances created
No pressure then, Alejandro.
If anything, this is really just saying that I’m a big believer in Baena’s ability. I think he’s going to be a really valuable player for Atlético and was surprised that there wasn’t more interest from other big clubs around Europe in signing him.
Anyway, as far as the record goes, the number to beat is 94 – achieved by Simão in 2008-09.
(To be clear, the records date back to 2006-07. Nothing exists before then).
We only got a brief snapshot of him as an Atlético player in pre-season, but the signs were good. Baena had plenty of positional freedom in games against Porto and Newcastle, roaming around in between the lines and even dropping deep for short, dump-off passes from centre backs just so he could get on the ball and start surveying the scene.
If they’re not aware already, Atlético will quickly realise that the more touches for Baena, the better — even if they’re not on the doorstep of the penalty area.
With Antoine Griezmann’s influence naturally dwindling, and with Rodrigo De Paul departed for Inter Miami, the opportunity is immediately there for the 24-year-old to become prominent and start directing the team’s most threatening distribution.
He’ll get some help from the likes of Thiago Almada on that front, but I don’t think it’ll be long before Baena becomes the creative hub of the team in a big way.
5. Mallorca goalkeeper Leo Román to make the most saves
Mallorca were, until recently, one of the LaLiga sides with a good problem in their goalkeeping position. They had two players who were good enough to start for them and one who wouldn’t play, meaning Leo Román had to sit and watch Dominik Greif for most of the season, even when everyone knew he was potentially a very valuable player.
Jagoba Arrasate and co are now hoping to verify that this season. With Greif seemingly set to depart for Lyon, the gloves will soon belong to Leo Román. And although it represents somewhat of a risk to say farewell to that they knew was a steady goalkeeper, their new man holds a level of potential that the club were clearly just too intrigued by. Three years younger than Greif, Leo Román is the guy most smart clubs would back in the same position.
When he did get the chance to play at the back end of last season, the 25-year-old reminded us who had seen him play for Real Oviedo on loan what he is all about. Román is the classic ‘cat’ goalkeeping archetype, blessed with unbelievable reflexes and speed to latch onto shots coming his way. A little undersized perhaps, at least in comparison with Greif, but for what he lacks in penalty area presence he makes up for with his shot-stopping.
Román only played seven times in LaLiga last season, and yet he still accounted for half of the instances of a goalkeeper making 10+ saves in a match (2/4), along with Joan García. Indeed, his 12 saves against Barcelona were the outright most in a single game, where he prevented roughly two goals based on the xG of shots on target faced (one from 2.9 xGoT).
That’s half time. Over to Robbie…
6. Yáser Asprilla puts up >12 goal involvements for Girona (goals & assists)
We have already highlighted him as a breakout player this season over at The Analyst. He only scored three goals all season and now we're predicting him to score 10+… yes.
Here's the thinking: Bryan Gil is gone and he was possibly the one hogging the most minutes that might now be filled by Asprilla.
Míchel has played with a 4-2-3-1 in preseason and Asprilla is the central attacking midfielder with license to create, crash the box and take as many shots as his heart desires.
They scored 44 goals last season with Cristhian Stuani netting 11 of those. Second on that list were Yángel Herrera and Abel Ruiz with four each. This team is crying out for another goalscorer and someone to take up the role of creative maestro, with Miguel Gutiérrez set for Napoli. Yáser Asprilla is ready.
7. Osasuna win more duels than any other team
Welcome to Alessio Lisci-land. Mirandés topped the charts in most duel metrics in the Spanish Segunda División last season. They had the most duels, duels won, aerial duels and aerial duels won.
Meanwhile, Lisci is inheriting a team with the player who won the most duels last season in Lucas Torró (276) and the player with the eighth-most in Ante Budimir (201). In fact, Torró and Budimir were also first and second in the aerial charts too.
This is simply a match made in duel heaven. Expect Osasuna to lean heavily into Lisci's 5-3-2 approach where they are king. They will face stiff competition from Getafe, who won the most duels and aerial duels last season, but Lisci’s success will come down in large part to how competitive Osasuna can be in the types of 1-v-1 heavy games they’re looking to tee up. Expect a lot of them next season.
8. Etta Eyong finishes with 10+ league goals
I had to be talked down from 15 on this one.
Okay, so we need to take a brief detour back in time before we get to the future and what we expect Etta Eyong to do next season.
Thierno Barry finished last season with 11 and the season before Nicolas Jackson finished with 14. But Jackson had never been prolific before, only scoring five in 25 games for Villarreal B before he made the jump up to senior. And neither was Barry. His highest total was 14 back in 2022-23 while playing in Belgium's second division.
Eyong finished with 19 goals for Villarreal B last season, although this time round it will come with the caveat that he needs to earn his minutes. The good news, if he is picked to stick around in the first team, is that the excellent Ayoze Pérez and Gerard Moreno are both injury-prone and could cede minutes to him.
With Álex Baena (7) and Barry (8) now gone, having chipped in 15 open-play goals between them last term, there's a massive opportunity for Eyong to help fill that gap.
9. Elche finish the season with more build-up attacks than anyone outside of Real Madrid and Barcelona
This is a particularly bold one, but Eder Sarabia is a bold coach. You might be thinking he'll arrive into LaLiga in his first managerial role in the top flight and just try to fly under the radar and survive. That doesn't sound very much like Eder Sarabia.
He will likely double down on his strategy of ultimate control of the game. Speaking last season, Julián Calero of fellow promoted side Levante, had this to say:
"I don't think there is a manager in LaLiga or Segunda or any of the top-flights in Europe with as much influence on his team's style of play [than Sarabia].”
Eder Sarabia's moment has come
There is no manager in Europe's top league with as much influence on his team's style of play than Eder Sarabia. That's according to Julian Calero anyway. Calero was over Burgos at the time he made that comment and the current Elche coach was at FC Andorra where he was guiding them to their highest ever league position.
Elche finished last season with 140 build-up attacks, 53 more than Calero’s Levante, who went on to secure the title. Meanwhile, they had 670 open play sequences of 10+ passes, over 200 more than the team with the next most, in Deportivo de La Coruña (465).
Outside of Barcelona (183) and Real Madrid (171) who we naturally expect to top the charts — especially now Xabi Alonso is around — their biggest competitors might well be Celta Vigo. They ranked third last season (127) and with another pre-season in the bag under the impressive Claudio Giráldez, expect them to be even more refined in 2025-26.
10. Álvaro Vallés finishes in the top three GKs for passes and xGOT prevented
We really believe in Álvaro Vallés. After sitting out last season, he is finally right where he belongs at Real Betis. They also signed Pau López this summer, but Valles should be the starter or become the starter if he isn't already.
The year before last, he finished with the second-best xGoT prevented total (6.55), behind only Giorgi Mamardashvili in LaLiga. And along with his ability on the ball, which was on full display against Como, his shot-stopping is still of the highest level. He's only 28 and should be, in theory, entering his prime as a goalkeeper.
Agree? Disagree? Shouts of your own? Let us know on here or X…
Really enjoyed these predictions! I'm also very excited to watch Asprilla at Girona this season, particularly given the more starring role he'll likely be playing, as you said.